He wasn’t sure how much more of this he could stomach. Tim had been slaving away for a year of 60-hour weeks at his job, and had just learned that he was the second-lowest-paid employee at the company (aside from the receptionist).
On some deep level, Tim knew this wasn’t right: he couldn’t justify wasting away behind a desk during the prime of his life, especially if the rewards of his effort only came when he was too old and tired to properly enjoy them. Unfortunately, the alternative was paralyzingly uncertain; taking such a risk would be nothing short of idiotic.
Or would it?
Around and Around
Tim Ferriss’ The 4-Hour Work Week has been hailed as a ground-breaking counterargument to the modern world’s perception of hard work, employment, and retirement. Unfortunately, I was barely old enough to walk at the time it was published, and so I’ve only gotten around to reading it now.
This isn’t going to be another bland recap of an already over-recapped book. Instead, I want to dig deep on a single quote that I found in Ferriss’ writing, and discuss its implications on your relationships, the way you make decisions, and your ability to live a meaningful life.
What exactly is that quote? Excellent question. Let’s get into it.
Rigged to Lose
As humans, we are biologically optimised to assume the worst case in every scenario. If our ancestors had been risk-taking optimists, they’d have had their internal organs ripped out by sabre-toothed tigers and we wouldn’t exist at all. As our society evolves around us, our brains remain largely the same, and so it’s no coincidence that people feel extremely reluctant to stray from the status quo. This is exactly why I had to double-take when I read this line in Ferriss’ book:
“Risks [a]ren’t that scary once you t[ake] them”
I think there’s a lot of valuable insight in this quote. To unpack it, however, we should quickly lay some groundwork:
Don’t Be an Idiot
As mentioned above, humans have inbuilt mechanisms that are designed to keep them out of trouble. Whilst these systems are not flawlessly applicable to today’s society, that doesn’t mean you should disregard them entirely. There are many risks that you could theoretically take, but that doesn’t mean you should take all of them. Some stupid risks include:
- Gambling
- Drunk driving
- Wiring money to a Nigerian prince in hopes of 1000% monthly returns
- Performing open-heart surgery with no prior training
- Becoming a car salesman in Venice, Italy
Instead, the kind of risk I’m referring to here is an intelligent risk: one where you have evaluated the potential upside and downside, and are confident that you can recover from a worst-case-scenario outcome. This type of risk can be terrifying, but—with adequate consideration and planning—they can change your life for the better.
Discomfort as a Vehicle for Improvement
As I’ve spoken about in previous articles (see here), there is immense value in building your tolerance to discomfort. Oftentimes in life, the best path is to get into the habit of taking the least comfortable route in any given situation. Obviously, when taken to the extreme, this argument can be construed as antithetical to Ferriss’ book, but it’s not that simple.
A lot of Ferriss’ suggestions in the book appear strange when viewed from a conventional standpoint; in fact, he even includes “comfort challenges” that push people outside of their pre-existing perceptions of the world. Instead of putting ourselves in uncomfortable situations in hopes of a better future in fifty years, Ferriss urges us to pursue a better future now.
Once you gain the ability to move past this discomfort (once again, I recommend this article for more information), you open yourself up to new information and—therefore—new ways in which you can improve your life. Next time you’re considering taking a risk, don’t simply analyse it in terms of how comfortable it makes you feel. Do this instead:
Seeing Through the Fog
I read a lot of books by a lot of smart people, and I’ve noticed a trend when it comes to making big decisions. Whether it be Naval Ravikant, Tim Ferriss, Phil Knight or Mark Oliphant, one pattern holds true: emotions and impulses are the enemy of good decisions. As such, I propose a new method for considering risk:
You should always take a risk if:
a) You are confident that you can cope with a worst-case outcome
and:
b) The long-term consequences of inaction are comparable with the worst-case outcome
You should never take a risk if:
a) You are confident that you cannot cope with a worst-case outcome
and/or:
b) The long-term consequences of inaction are comparable with the best-case outcome
Of course, this is not a perfect framework, and it’s never going to be this simple in the real world. Understanding these basic patterns, however, can eliminate the influence of emotions next time you make a big decision. What happens if you do nothing? What happens if everything falls apart, and how long would it take you to get back to where you are now? These are valuable questions in the decision-making process, and will almost certainly reveal contradictions or inefficiencies in the beliefs you currently hold.
A Whole New World
Everything changes when you realise just how much influence you have in the world. If properly focused, your efforts and time can achieve far more than most thumb-twiddling supervisors would have you believe. If nothing else, I hope this article gave you a new insight into the mechanics of risk, and perhaps prompted you to question the axioms on which your life has previously been constructed.
Never stop thinking.
- Will